Current research/working papers

• Financial repression in general equilibrium: The case of the United States, 1948--1974, with Martin Kliem, Alexander Kriwoluzky, and Alexander Scheer, March 2024, CEPR Discussion paper 18944

• Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro, with Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, Manuel Menkhoff, and Knut Niemann, February 2024, Earlier version: CEPR Discussion paper 17768, see also VoxEU

• The Price of War, with Jonathan Federle, André Meier, Willi Mutschler, and Moritz Schularick, February 2024, Kiel Policy Brief, CEPR Discussion paper 18834 and Price of War Calculator

• Exchange Rate Insulation Revisited, with Giancarlo Corsetti, Keith Kuester, and Sebastian Schmidt, December 2023, Earlier versions: ECB Working paper 2630 and CEPR Discussion paper 15689, summary on VoxEU

• Hicks in HANK: Fiscal Responses to an Energy Shock, with Christian Bayer, Alexander Kriwoluzky, and Fabian Seyrich, October 2023, CEPR Discussion paper 18557, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, revise and resubmit 

• Big News: Climate Change and the Business Cycle, with Alexander Dietrich and Raphael Schoenle, September 2023, Earlier version: CEPR Discussion Paper 15866, summary on VoxEU

• Dollar Trinity and the Global Financial Cycle, with Georgios Georgiadis and Ben Schumann, August 2023, CEPR Discussion paper DP18427

• Pandemics, Public Policy and Peltzman Effects, with Alexander Dietrich and Wilhelm Kohler, July 2023, Earlier version: CEPR Discussion paper 17952, summary on VoxEU

• Uncertainty Shocks in Currency Unions, with Benjamin Born and Johannes Pfeifer, CEPR Discussion paper 15579, December 2020

• Different no more: Country spreads in advanced and emerging economies, with Benjamin Born, Johannes Pfeifer, and Susanne Wellmann, May 2020, summary on VoxEU

Recently published or forthcoming

• A HANK^2 model of monetary unions, with Christian Bayer, Alexander Kriwoluzky, and Fabian Seyrich, March 2024, Journal of Monetary Economics, accepted 

• Big G, with Lydia Cox, Ernesto Pasten, Raphael Schoenle, and Michael Weber, January 2024, Journal of Political Economy, accepted

• Global Risk and the Dollar, with Georgios Georgiadis and Ben Schumann, December 2023, summary on VoxEU, Journal of Monetary Economics, accepted

• Proximity to War: The stock market response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with Jonathan Federle, André Meier and Victor Sehn, February 2023, summary on VoxEU, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, accepted

• Mr. Keynes meets the Classics: Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate, with Benjamin Born, Francesco D'Ascanio, and Johannes Pfeifer, July 2023, Journal of Political Economy, accepted, doi

• On FIRE, news, and expectations, with Benjamin Born and Zeno Enders, June 2023, prepared for the forthcoming Handbook of Economic Expectations in Historical Perspective, Routledge. 

• Delayed Overshooting: The Case for Information Rigidities, with Martin Wolf and Thomas Hettig, March 2022, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, accepted 

• Risk Sharing in Currency Unions: The Migration Channel, with Wilhelm Kohler and Susanne Wellmann, European Economic Review 158, September 2023, summary on VoxEU, doi

• The Coronavirus stimulus package: How large is the transfer multiplier?, with Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, and Ralph Luetticke, The Economic Journal, 133(652), May 2023, summary on VoxEU, doi

• Firm expectations about production and prices: Facts, determinants, and effects, with Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, and Knut Niemann, 2023, Chapter 12 of the  Handbook of Economic Expectations, Elsevier, edited by Rüdiger Bachmann, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw, pages 355-383, doi

• Firm expectations and economic activity, with Zeno Enders and Franziska Hünnekes, December 2022, Journal of the European Economic Association, 20(6) , doi

• News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact, with Alexander Dietrich, Keith Kuester, and Raphael Schoenle, Journal of Monetary Economics 129, July 2022, summary on VoxEU, doi

• Is large-scale rapid CoV-2 testing a substitute for lockdowns? with Marc Diederichs, René Glawion, Peter Kremsner, Timo Mitze, Dominik Papies, Felix Schulz, and Klaus Wälde, PLoS ONE 17(3): e0265207,  March 2022, doi

• Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-run Fluctuations, with Zeno Enders and Michael Kleemann, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 103 (5): 905–921, December 2021, doi 

• The macroeconomic impact of Trump, with Benjamin Born, Moritz Schularick and Petr Sedláček, Policy Studies, 42:5-6, 580-591, April 2021, earlier version: CEPR Discussion paper 13798, summary on VoxEU, doi

• The Lockdown Effect: A Counterfactual for Sweden, with Benjamin Born and Alexander Dietrich, PLoS ONE 16(4): e0249732, April 2021, a short lecture (in German) explaining the study, doi

• Does Austerity Pay Off?, with Benjamin Born and Johannes Pfeifer, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(2), May 2020, doi, Summary on VoxEU.org, Summary in German on Oekonomenstimme.org, replication files

• Monetary Policy Announcements and Expectations: Evidence from German Firms, with Zeno Enders and Franziska Hünnekes, Journal of Monetay Economics, 108, 45-63, December 2019,  doi 

• Exit expectations and debt crises in currency unions, with Alexander Kriwoluzky and Martin Wolf,  Online Appendix, Journal of International Economics, 121, November 2019, doi

• The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment, with Benjamin Born, Petr Sedláček, and Moritz Schularick, The Economic Journal 129(10), October 2019, doi, summary on VoxEU

• Fiscal policy coordination in currency unions at the effective lower bound, with Thomas Hettig,  Journal of International Economics 115, November 2018, 80-98, doi

• Fixed on flexible: Rethinking Exchange Rate Regimes after the Great Recession, with Giancarlo Corsetti and Keith Kuester, IMF Economic Review 65(3), 586-632, August 2017, see Summary on VoxEU.org

• Deleveraging, deflation and depreciation in the euro area, with Dmitry Kuvshinov and  Martin Wolf, European Economic Review 88, 42-66, September 2016

Selected earlier work

• Multilateral Economic Cooperation and the International Transmission of Fiscal Policy, with G. Corsetti, in Feenstra, R. C. and Taylor, A. M. (eds) Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, chapter 7, University of Chicago Press, 2014, working paper version

Open Economy Macro - Slides for Lectures

• Lecture 1 & 2

• Lecture 3, mod file , matlab metafile, 2country

• Lecture 4

• Lecture 5, IRF estimation example

• Lecture 6

• Lecture 7

• Lecture 8

• Lecture 9